In his Independence Day broadcast on Thursday, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu told Nigerians the hard part is over. “The emergency treatment is over,” he said. “The foundation has been repaired.” It’s a big claim from a president heading into an election year, so we took five of his biggest promises and put them next to the data.
“When I speak of Prosperity, I mean where all farmers can cultivate their land in safety, and harm a decent return. Our priority is to bring down the cost of living. We will achieve this by lowering the cost of producing and moving the things Nigerians consume.”
— Oyindamola🙄 (@dammiedammie35) October 1, 2026
– President… pic.twitter.com/s1qgG0v5RO
“The economy is growing again”
This one holds up. GDP grew 4.43% in the second quarter of 2026, bringing first-half growth to about 4.16%, up from 3.68% a year earlier. It was the fastest second quarter in five years. His export claim is also true: non-oil exports reached $6.1 billion in 2025, up 11.5% on 2024 and the highest figure in Nigeria’s history.
“Inflation has fallen”
“Our priority is to bring down the cost of living. We will achieve this by lowering the cost of producing and moving the things Nigerians consume.”
— CHUKS 🍥 (@ChuksEricE) October 1, 2026
— President Bola Tinubu, in his Independence Day address pic.twitter.com/9OGW80DBko
This is also true, with a catch. Headline inflation was 15.39% in August 2026, compared with 23.14% a year earlier. But food inflation is still 19.57%, which means the price of what you eat is still climbing, just more slowly than before.
“We will lower the cost of living”
The president said cutting production and transport costs is central to his plan. But Nigerians are still paying heavily for the one cost that touches everything. Petrol averaged ₦1,532.93 a litre in April 2026, and unions say it now sells for ₦1,450 to ₦2,000. Federal workers have threatened a three-day strike from Friday unless it drops to ₦500. The broadcast, as reported, didn’t address it.
“Farmers must be able to work safely”
Tinubu said prosperity means farmers working without fear. The numbers say Nigeria isn’t there yet. 5,091 people were killed in just three months this year, and 7,825 Nigerians were kidnapped in twelve months, up 66% on the year before, with ransom payments more than tripling to ₦7.78 billion.
“Factories need reliable electricity”
This was another marker of prosperity in the speech. In January, the national grid collapsed twice in four days, and generation sits at around 4,000 to 5,000 megawatts, against the 30,000 experts say the country needs.
Haven’t we heard this before?
On Independence Day 2025, Tinubu declared that “the worst is over” and said Nigeria had finally turned the corner. This year, the message is that the age of prosperity has begun.
